After another rather long hiatus I am back with more Pedestrian-Traffic Incidents. The data is sourced from the City of Calgary’s open data website. The data set is here.

There were 61 incidents in October – 13 more than September and 12 more than last October.

The heat map and cluster map are shown below:

Model Details

The model is a SARIMAX (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average eXogenous regressors). The model specification is (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)[12]. An Error-Trend-Seasonal breakdown is shown below:

The regression diagnostics are shown below:

The regression diagnostics indicate that the model is not missing any
major dynamics in the data. The standardized residuals are centered on
zero, and do not show significant autocorrelation. The residuals are
more normal than in the past, this shows up in the histogram, and as a
smaller deviation from the linear pattern in the Q-Q plot at the -1 and
+1 Theoretical Quantiles. None of the lags on the Correlogram are
statistically significant.