I’m back with an update on Pedestrian-Traffic Incidents for the month of August. The data is sourced from the City of Calgary’s open data website. The data set is here.

August was a record month – and not in a good way. There were 44 incidents (a record high) – 7 more than July, and 23 more than last August.

The heat map and cluster map are shown below:

Model Details

The model is a SARIMAX (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average eXogenous regressors). The model specification is (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)[12]. An Error-Trend-Seasonal breakdown is shown below:

The regression diagnostics are shown below:

The regression diagnostics indicate that the model is not missing any major dynamics in the data. The standardized residuals are centered on zero, and do not show significant autocorrelation. The residuals are more normal than in the past, this shows up in the histogram, and as a smaller deviation from the linear pattern in the Q-Q plot at the -1 and +1 Theoretical Quantiles. None of the lags on the Correlogram are statistically significant.