I’m back with an update on Pedestrian-Traffic Incidents for the month of December. The data is sourced from the City of Calgary’s open data website. The data set is here.

There were 24 incidents in December – 6 more than in November, and 3 more than in December 2021.

The heat map and cluster map are largely unchanged – adding 24 incidents to the existing 1264 incidents is not really enough to move the needle

There are still distinct clusters downtown (red), Forest Lawn (orange), along the Northeast transit line (green), and Macleod Trail (blue).

Model Details

The model is a SARIMAX (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average eXogenous regressors). The model specification is (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)[12]. An Error-Trend-Seasonal breakdown is shown below:

Regression diagnostics are shown below:

The regression diagnostics indicate that the model is not missing any major dynamics in the data. The standardized residuals are centered on zero, and do not show significant autocorrelation. This time the residuals are more bimodal than in the past, this shows up in the histogram, and as a deviation from the linear pattern in the Q-Q plot at the -1 and +1 Theoretical Quantiles. None of the lags on the Correlogram are statistically significant.