This is the first post in what I hope is a series of monthly posts on Pedestrian-Traffic Incidents in Calgary. The data is pulled from the City of Calgary Open Data website. If you are interested in the raw data here is a direct link.

Incidents increased in September to 36 – the highest on record since data collection began at the end of 2016 and 14 more incidents than the previous September.

Model Details

The model is a SARIMAX (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average eXogenous). The model specification is (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)[12] An Error-Trend-Seasonal breakdown is shown below:

Regression diagnostics are shown below:

The regression diagnostics indicate that the model is not missing any major dynamics. The standardized residuals are centered on zero, and do not show significant autocorrelation. The residuals are also approximately normally distributed, both from the histogram and the Q-Q plot. None of the lags on the Correlogram are statistically significant.